As holiday travels quickly approach, we reached out to AAA and INRIX for this year’s Thanksgiving travel forecast. The 2018 Thanksgiving holiday period is defined as Wednesday, November 21–Sunday, November 25. With record numbers traveling this month, leverage this Thanksgiving travel forecast to help make your holiday trip a little less painful.
Key Takeaways
- 54.3 million Americans are expected to travel this Thanksgiving, a 4.8 percent increase over 2017.
- 2018 will be the highest travel volume on record, second to 2005.
- Auto travel is expected to increase nearly five percent for the second consecutive year, with 2018 volume on the road topping 48.5 million.
- Leading all modes of travel in growth, 4.3 million Americans will be taking to the skies this Thanksgiving, a 5.4 percent jump from last year.
- Travel by other modes (including train, bus and cruise) will increase 1.4 percent to 1.48 million.
Drivers Beware
Drivers in San Francisco, New York City and Boston will see the largest delays — nearly quadruple normal drive times. INRIX analysts advise avoiding commuting times times in major cities altogether or plan alternative routes. In general, the best days to travel will be on Thanksgiving Day, Friday or Saturday. Drivers should expect increased travel times on Sunday as most holiday travelers will be making their way home after the long weekend.
Worst Times to Hit the Road in America’s Largest Cities |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Metro Area |
Worst Day for Travel |
Worst Time for Travel |
Worst Hotspot |
Delay Multiplier |
| Houston | Monday | 2:00 – 4:00 PM | TX-8 Beltway E, TX249 to I69 | 2.75 |
| Boston | Tuesday | 4:00 – 6:00 PM | I-495 S, exit 41 to 33 | 3.5x |
| Seattle | Tuesday | 4:00 – 6:00 PM | I-5 S, exit 178 to 149 | 2x |
| Atlanta | Tuesday | 5:00 – 7:00 PM | I-75 N, exit 216 to 227 | 2.75x |
| Washington, D.C. | Tuesday | 5:00 – 7:00 PM | Capital Beltway Clockwise | 2.5x |
| Detroit | Tuesday | 5:30 – 7:30 PM | US-23 N, exit 35 to 49 | 2.5x |
| New York | Tuesday | 6:00 – 8:00 PM | I-95 W, exit 7 to Hamilton Bridge | 3.5x |
| San Francisco | Wednesday | 1:00 – 3:00 PM | I-680 N, exit 8 to 21 | 4x |
| Chicago | Wednesday | 2:30 – 4:30 PM | I-94 W, exit 40A to 1 | 2x |
| Los Angeles | Wednesday | 2:30 – 4:30 PM | I-5 S, exit 79 to 54B | 2x |
Source: INRIX
Best Times to Fly
The Tuesday and Wednesday prior to Thanksgiving are usually the most popular air travel days and have the highest average price per roundtrip ticket. Meanwhile, Thanksgiving Day consistently has the lowest average price per ticket and is the lightest travel day. Travelers looking to save money this holiday season can fly the morning of the holiday and arrive just in time for Thanksgiving dinner.
Day |
3-Year Average Ticket Price |
Expected Crowds |
| Monday (November 19, 2018) | $465 | Moderate |
| Tuesday (November 20, 2018) | $509 | Heavy |
| Wednesday (November 21, 2018) | $507 | Heavy |
| Thursday (November 22, 2018) | $446 | Light |
Flying between 6:00am and 11:59am also helps since that window tends to see the lowest disruptions and delays.
Top 10 Thanksgiving Destinations
This Thanksgiving, many travelers seek iconic American cities, theme parks and other warm-weather destinations. This year’s top 10 holiday destinations are based on AAA’s online and travel agency air and tour bookings. Punta Cana, Dallas/Fort Worth and Miami are all gaining popularity as Thanksgiving destinations compared to last year.
- Orlando, Florida
- New York City, New York
- Anaheim, California
- Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
- Las Vegas, Nevada
- Cancun, Mexico
- Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
- Honolulu, Hawaii
- Washington, D.C.
- Miami, Florida
As North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 59 million members with travel, insurance, financial and automotive-related services.
INRIX is the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics. Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward.